И. С. Касатов The article discusses a comprehensive agro-climatic and phytopathological analysis of factors that determine the dynamics of apple scab development in an orchard located in Solnechnogorsk, Moscow region during 2023–2024. The study analyzes weather patterns, varietal susceptibility and the impact of local microclimate based on data from meteorological stations No.27417 (Klin) and KaipoMini 2.1 automated stations within the orchard. Significant variations in temperature and humidity were identified at regional and local levels, necessitating localized monitoring systems. The validation of the prognostic model of scab ascospore maturation and the model of conidial stage development on the Agrokeep intelligent platform was carried out. A strong correspondence has been established between the calculated episodes and the actual outbreaks of the disease on apple varieties Mantet, Melba and Lobo, which differ in sensitivity. In addition, the prevalence of other diseases, such as scab, powdery mildew, phyllostictosis and moniliosis was monitored. The analysis revealed that some varieties, such as Mantet, Lobo and Melba, were more susceptible to pathogens, while other varieties, like Imrus and Orlovim, were less susceptible. This data supports the need to incorporate local meteorological information into plant protection plans and phytosanitary forecasts. These findings provide a scientific basis for the development of adaptive systems for fruit crop protection in a changing climate.
Научная статья 
агромодель