Николай Михайлович Светлов The paper reports on test results based on the deterministic estimates obtained using a PF + PE model (production frontier plus partial equilibrium model) in 80 regional markets of Russia. Two interrelated null hypotheses have been tested regarding to the impact of the adoption of grain export duties in Russia. The first hypothesis is that these duties do not improve the availability of the dominant food products to the population. It has been tested for Russia as a whole as well as for its 80 federal subjects. The second is that these duties do not stimulate the production of the main animal products, which is tested for Russia as a whole and for 78 federal subjects. The tests are applied retrospectively to the period from 2011 to 2015. The study disapproved the null hypotheses. The first hypothesis was rejected for 61 federal subjects of 80 but not for Russia as a whole, due to reduced consumption of milk products resulting from the duty introduction. The second hypothesis was rejected both for Russia as a whole and for 12 federal subjects of 78 tested ones. The export duties for grain provide either weak or contradictive (in some regions) advantages to the growth of animal production and cause incomparable damage to grain production. Under such duties, food consumption in Russia can be increased wholly due to the food products made of grain. Additional estimated inflow in the federal budget resulting from the considered duty is less than agricultural losses (including those of trade agents engaged in farm produce wholeselling and exporting). Due to this reason, thy present study supports the recent decision of the Government of the Russian Federation to postpone the implementation of the grain export duty until July 1, 2021. The results raise the question about legal provisions for zero grain export duties and establishing permanent criteria of extraordinary situations that would allow temporary introduction of the grain export duty.
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federal subjects